Election polls

Three choices that change a polling average

First analysis: how data selection, pollster balance and recency can change the meaning of a percentage.

2026-11-04 · Editor: Trends Türkiye · First publication; no corrections yet.

Poll counts and pollster counts are different

If one pollster publishes three studies in a month and another publishes one, a simple average gives the first three times the share. That reflects publishing frequency, not three times the independent evidence or reliability. The pollster-balanced option makes the distinction visible by summarizing each pollster first. When equal and balanced results diverge, first check which pollsters have more records.

Newly added does not mean newly conducted

A study added to the archive today may have completed fieldwork weeks earlier. Using its addition date would make old information appear fresh. Recency weighting therefore uses fieldwork end, while publication eligibility is checked separately. Weekly analysis should distinguish newly published polls from older research found later.

Undecided voters change the denominator

A raw party share with undecided voters reported separately does not have the same base as a share after redistribution. Averaging them treats two different measurements as one. Telephone and mixed-method polls also require checks on population and question wording. A change caused by filtering does not by itself prove that voters have changed their minds.

What does the new tool show?

The initial version publishes no reliability ranking. It shows recency and pollster balance on the same comparable records. Declining to draw an aggregate when metadata or observations are insufficient is itself an analytical result: filling unknowns produces a fuller but indefensible line. Readers can inspect missing information in the source list and compare methods with identical filters. This article is not a comprehensive scan of this week's new polls or an election forecast.

Methodology reference and further reading: AAPOR Disclosure Standards. Explore the methodology and data requirements